![]() ![]() He noted that because a bettor's intuition may sometimes be more linked to an average outcome rather than the median, the utilization of some data, or even better, a model, is strongly encouraged. The reason is that the median margin of victory in those games was only 7, which is less than the point spread of 10. They are playing again, and the point spread has been posted as 'Kansas City -10.' This means that Kansas City is favored to win the game by 10 points according to the sportsbooks."įor a bettor, Dmochowski added, the optimal decision in this scenario is to bet on Philadelphia (+10), even though they have lost the last three games by an average margin of 15 points. ![]() Kansas City has won each of those games by margins of 3, 7, and 35 points. "Assume that Kansas City has played Philadelphia three times previously. To illustrate one of the findings, he presents a hypothetical example. "I approach this from a statistical point-of-view, but also provide some intuitive results with sample data from the NFL that can be digested by those without a background in math." Importantly, this is not the same as the average outcome," said Dmochowski, whose expertise includes machine learning, signal processing and brain-computer interfaces. "The central finding of the work is that the objective in sports betting is to estimate the median outcome. ![]()
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